The bets (and markets) to take into account for the favorites at Roland Garros

Roland Garros
February 15, 2023

A couple of years ago, specifically around 2015, I seem to remember that I gave you the key to placing tennis bets when it was time to talk about the Roland Garros edition of that season. I had had to talk about sports betting on a radio station (at that time they held me in high esteem on the airwaves) and I justified that, after football, tennis was my favorite sport to bet on even as a novice, that I learned a lot. Time has been giving me the reason, so before we face the sports betting forecasts for this Roland Garros 2017 again, I will take the opportunity to remember that talk on the radio. If you want to be informed of all the news… don’t miss this article with all the Roland Garros predictions for this 2019!

The presenter’s doubt about tennis betting resided in the constant favoritism of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and company. If the same ones always win, since the odds are so low, how do you learn to know what to bet on? Easy: studying the weaknesses of each one and not going to traditional markets, but betting on sets, games…

In addition, tennis is a sport that often offers second chances. And if at that time it was possible to make a profit out of a match with the great favourites, now much more so. Rafa Nadal has risen from the ashes of him as a great favorite to win in Paris, and how his main rivals arrive is a complete unknown. It is there where certain young talents emerge from the clay that well deserve a separate chapter this season, and of which we will take advantage of in our sports betting.

Featured matches of the day (11-6)

Stan Wawrinka v Rafael Nadal: Nothing short of predicting a resounding victory for the nine-time Roland Garros champion would be logical. Rafa dominates Wawrinka 15-3 head-to-head and 5-1 in six meetings on clay. In all of them, when he won, he did it without giving up sets. He only lost on clay to the Swiss in the 2015 Rome Masters, in one of the worst moments of his career. Nadal has shown enviable form throughout the tournament and has not dropped a single set, and it seems almost impossible that, barring physical mishaps, he will cede his chance to be crowned champion for the tenth time in Paris. Despite this, we know that Wawrinka is a fighter and that he always makes things difficult for anyone. If Nadal wins 3-0, the odds are 2.10, and if there are more than 3 sets in the match, it is 1.72, as the two recommended bets for the match.

The new Nadal resolves on the fast track

new Nadal

After two seasons greatly diminished by injuries, it seems incredible that the Spaniard has recovered in such a solid way compared to the rest of the rackets on the circuit. There was some uncertainty regarding his performance against Top-10 rivals and in finals, but this course and, above all, the season that the man from Manacor has signed on clay, have placed him in his own right in the first place of sports betting for lift his tenth Cup of the Musketeers at the Philippe Chatrier in two weeks.

Three titles, the three recent ones and on clay (Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid), and three other finals, all three on hard surfaces and including a Grand Slam final in Australia (the other two were in Acapulco, Mexico, and in Miami ) place Nadal in first position in the 2017 Race of Champions. The Spaniard has also shown improvements in fundamental aspects of his tennis: a much more powerful, effective and perfected serve (although what is really new is what his second has evolved service), and a prodigious volley (he almost loses no points on the net).

These characteristics, together with the virtues he already has (unmatched mental and physical stamina in five-set matches, technical superiority on clay and he is also very quick on his legs) will surely make him overcome the first rounds of Roland Garros more or less quickly. , although in crosses against direct-type tennis players (‘gunners’ like Jack Sock, for example) he can suffer and give up sets. It is a very reliable bet this year, so we can opt for the game markets (few) in the first rounds, and sets as we get closer to the last ones. The odds for his win in the tournament is 1.83.

Novak Djokovic, a prodigy under examination

If Nadal has returned to become a favorite for this Roland Garros, Novak Djokovic, current champion and Rafa’s main rival for the title, will be unknown from the first day of matches. No major surprises are expected with him in the form of early eliminations (or we don’t expect them), but it is true that he is in a season of changes (he will start with Andre Agassi as coach in this tournament after having wandered the circuit without a team) and That makes the Serbian a fantastic tennis player who can, however, win the tournament by crushing his opponents or disappoint like the most.

Djokovic has not won a title since the first one he played this season in Doha and only played in 2 finals in 2017

What to do when we face a similar dilemma with a favorite like the Balkan? Take advantage of it. No time will be better than now to try betting with some risk but moderately against Djokovic in the tournament, especially as we approach the later rounds. We refer to betting that the Serbian will lose a set in matches of a certain demand, above all. And even try match betting against him if he is up against some other favorite before the final. In our mind, the clash that Nadal beat him on the fast track in Madrid a few weeks ago. Despite this, if he wins Roland Garros, the odds are 4.50.

Sports betting by Andy Murray

Sports betting by Andy Murray

And if Novak Djokovic can offer us any doubts, the case of Andy Murray is even more flagrant. The world number one appears at Roland Garros far from his best moment and giving the impression that his leadership stage on the circuit has lasted as long as the rest of his rivals have taken to compose themselves. In addition, his latest performances and his history in Paris do not exactly invite optimism with him.

Murray is the worst of the top 5 in the ATP Rankings in 2017 (and he’s only won half of his matches on clay this season)

Of his last ten matches, nine of them on clay, Murray has only enjoyed 50 per cent wins, and while he has won one trophy so far this season it was in Dubai, a second-tier venue. The clay-court Grand Slam is undoubtedly the worst of the four for him, as he reached the first final of his career last year (losing to Djokovic) and in the last two editions he has played thirteen matches, being unable not to give up. sets in ten of them.

This last piece of information makes things easier for us, therefore. With greater confidence we can bet on victories for the Scotsman but losing sets in the first rounds, knowing that his performance on gravel is not as good as on fast surfaces. However, he is the fifth favorite to win the tournament, at odds of 13.00.

The big bets: the aspirants to Kings in Paris

Of course there are more Roland Garros hopefuls apart from Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. Without Roger Federer, down this year, we will have the incombustible Wawrinka around, always dangerous, but we must make special mention of two names: Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev, 23 and 20 years old, respectively, and from Austria and Germany. They are emerging as the great hopes for those who want to see new blood in tennis in the short term, especially on clay.

Only Thiem has beaten Nadal on clay this year; Zverev, for his part, is the youngest player to win a Masters 1000 since 2007.

If we refer to the clay season, the main barometer to measure the chances of the favorites at Roland Garros, Dominic Thiem, considered by many to be the next King of clay worldwide, was one of the most consistent along with Nadal, who has already they have met three times this season. As for Zverev, three of the four titles in his very short career have been achieved this season and he has just won in Rome. With two trophies on the ground, he is a rough ‘diamond’, along with his almost compatriot, when it comes to betting on them from the first rounds. If we do it forcefully we can have access to somewhat higher odds compared to the big favorites. And if they give the maximum surprise, the fee for Thiem’s victory in the tournament is 11.00, and Zverev’s is 15.00.

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